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WEATHER CROPS ^ MARKETS

Published Weekly by the United States Department of Agriculture

??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? WASHINGTON, D. C. AUGUST 5, 1922. VOL. 2, NO. 6 ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

EXPORT BUTTER DEMAND CAUSES MUCH INTEREST Sales to United Kingdom Strengthened Early Summer Market--Shift in England's Supply Sources.

A demand for American butter by English buyers had a materially strengthening effect on the early summer market in the United States. This generally unexpected export demand has called forth various explanations in the attempt to determine the probability of continued demand from that source.

An analysis of the international butter trade of the past 10 years indicates that a change not yet generally realized has taken place in the seasonal trend of imports of butter into the United Kingdom, which largely accounts for this demand in anticipation of an autumn shortage. This change is due to the shift that took place during the war in the sources of supply of that greatest of all butter-importing countries.

SUPPLY WAS UNIFORM.

Prior to the war the United Kingdom obtained its butter supply from such widely scattered sources in both the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres that the supply was remarkably uniform from month to month throughout the year. During the war, when supplies available from continental Europe and Russia were reduced, Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina were encouraged to expand their dairy industry, and have together since that time continued as the most important sources of supply of butter on the British markets.

As the flush of production in Australia, New Zealand, and Argentina occurs during the fall and winter months when production is lightest in North America and Europe, England now receives an average of two-thirds of the total supply of foreign butter during the winter and spring, whereas formerly but one-half was received during this period.

Although consumption does not necessarily follow the same seasonal trend as the imports, it is a fact, according to reports of London dealers, that butter stocks are now lower than at the same time last year, when at least 50,000,000 lbs. of Government stocks still remained unsold in England. With comparatively light stocks and the certainty that imports into England after July can not be as heavy as during the first six months, a speculative demand has been stimulated in that country in anticipation of an expected autumn shortage.

Although butter production since the war has recovered rapidly in practically all of the important dairy countries, Russia is still out of the world's market. The cutting off of the Russian exports to England, which amounted to 150,000,000 lbs. annually from 1909 to 1913, was the greatest single factor in bringing about, this change in the seasonal supply of the latter country.

The present statistical position of the United States is, therefore, somewhat misleading, unless due consideration is given to

IN THIS ISSUE.

COTTON CROP CONDITION 70.8 PER CENT NORMAL Loss Amounts to 0.4 Per Cent During Past Months--Total Output Estimated at 11,449,000 Bales.

The condition of the cotton crop on July 25 was 70.8% of normal, according to the estimate made by the U. S. Department of Agriculture on Aug. 1. Compared with the condition of 71.2% on June 25, this shows a decrease in condition of 0.4% for the month. The average condition of the cotton crop on July 25 for the past 10 years stands at 73% of normal.

A condition of 70.8% of normal on July 25 this year forecasts a yield per acre of about 157.2 lbs. and a total production of about 11,449,000 bales of 500 lbs. gross weight each. The final outturn may be larger or smaller than this amount, of course, depending upon whether or not the conditions that develop during the remainder of the season prove more or less favorable to the crop than such conditions ordinarily prove.

Condition of the Cotton Crop on July 25, with Comparisons.

Last year the production was 7,953,641 bales, two years ago 13,439,603 bales, three years ago 11,420,763 bales, four years ago 12,040,532 bales, and five years ago 11,302,375 bales.

The 1922 acreage of Egyptian type cotton is estimated at 80,000 acres in Arizona and less than 1,000 acres in California. In 1921 Arizona had 75,000 acres and California 9,000 acres, while in 1920 the estimate for Arizona was 200,000 acres and for California 45,000 acres.

The department's estimate of cotton acreage in cultivation on June 25, which was made public on July 3, remains unchanged at 34,852,000 acres because the acreage abandoned before that date was excluded. A great decrease in cotton acreage followed the high acreage of 1920, which was 37,043,000 acres, because of the disastrous break in prices to growers in that year.

The accompanying table gives detailed information on the condition of the cotton crop on July 25, by States, together with comparisons.

Paradox in Forecast Yield of Crop per Acre as Indicated by Condition.

A crop may deteriorate in condition during a growing month and yet its yield per acre as forecast by a computation based on the lowered condition may increase. In the average of crop experiences during the growing period a certain crop declines in condition during a certain month by a certain percentage of a normal condition.

For instance, the cotton crop has a record of a deterioration of 3.9% of a normal condition from June 25 to July 25 in the average of the last 10 years. As a matter of fact, however, during this period in 1922 the deterioration in the condition of the cotton crop was only 0.4%. This is clearly a relative improvement because it is less than the usual deterioration of 3.9%. Hence the yield per acre in the forecast for July 25 must be greater than in the forecast made a month earlier, notwithstanding the absolute decline in condition.

Report on Cabbage, Celery, and Onions in Michigan.

Reports from the field service of the U. S. Department of Agriculture for the date of July 25 concerning commercial cabbage, celery, and onions in Michigan contain the following information:

In Hillsdale County, Jonesville has 200 acres, of which 130 acres are under contract; Mosherville has 13 acres for kraut; and Litchfield has 20 acres. In Branch County, Quincy has approximately 250 acres of commercial cabbage, of which 170 acres are under contract: and Coldwater has about 350 acres, with 60% under contract. The kraut plant in Coldwater will be in operation this year. Baroda, in Berrien County, has 60 acres of cabbage and Niles, in the same county, 40 acres for kraut.

In northern Michigan, Saginaw County has 1,400 acres of commercial cabbage, 300 acres of which are under contract.

INTERMEDIATE ONION CROP ESTIMATED AT 6,753 CARS Early and Intermediate Crops Forecast at 13,605 Cars--Acreage Increased in Late States.

The production of commercial onions in the seven intermediate shipping States is forecast at 6,753 cars of 500 bus. each, compared with a production in 1921 of 4,472 cars, according to estimates of the U. S. Department of Agriculture for July 15. These intermediate States are: New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, Kentucky, Iowa, Texas, and Washington.

New Jersey leads the intermediate States with an indicated production of 1.613 cars, and following in order are Washington with 1,566 cars, Texas with 1,092 cars, Iowa with 1,062 cars, Kentucky with 600 cars, Virginia, with 560 cars, and Maryland with 260 cars.

The commercial onion crop in the intermediate and early States combined is forecast at 13,605 cars, each car of the early crop containing 530 bus. and of the intermediate crop 500 bus. In 1921 the harvest of early and intermediate onions totaled 10,287 cars.

About 38,000 acres have been planted to late commercial onions, compared with about 35,000 acres in 1921, according to the department's estimates. The condition of the late commercial onion crop was 83% of normal on July 15. This condition is about average.

The accompanying tables give detailed information, by States, on the early and intermediate crops and the late crop.

Acreage and Forecast of Production of Commercial Onions in Intermediate and Early States.

Acreage and Condition of Commercial Onions in Late States.

Practically all classes of live stock sold lower during the week ending July 29. In beef steer trade the general decline was assisted materially by the heaviest run of native, western, and Canadian grassers of the season. Downturns of mostly 25? at Chicago and of 50?-$l at some Missouri River markets were apparent on the more common descriptions. As supplies of western grassers increased, the supply of long-fed bullocks decreased and as the latter were sought by all interests, the widest price range of the season on beef steers was created at all markets.

Hog prices fluctuated sharply, closing Chicago values being 25?-50? lower on mixed grades and heavy packers, and 40?-55? on good butcher hogs compared with the close of the previous week. Much of the supply at Omaha and a good percentage of the run at Chicago and some other markets consisted of heavy sows and mixed packing grades, and these pulled the general average down to the lowest levels since early in February.

SHEEP TRADE ERRATIC.

Trade in fat sheep and feeding lambs was erratic, with closing prices highest of the week but showing an irregular basis compared with the previous week's close.

Receipts at 10 large markets for the week were approximately 199,000 cattle, 502,000 hogs and 195,000 sheep, compared with 215,357 cattle, 452,902 hogs, and 244,517 sheep the previous week, and 166,112 cattle, 398,424 hogs, and 199,137 sheep the corresponding week last year.

Canadians and Dakotas were generally in poor flesh and turned at .75-.50, killers taking a few at the latter price. Oklahoma and Texas grass steers invaded Kansas City and St. Louis in liberal numbers, and sold largely within a spread of .25-, many quarantine steers, grading as cutters, selling around .25-.75. Kansas pasture cattle were well represented at Kansas City, and winter grass steers of good weight and condition sold there upward to .75 or slightly higher. A few lots of Utah and California steers arrived at Omaha. Bulk of grass steers sold there at -.25, a large proportion of the far western steers being in feeder flesh. One lot of Montana steers showing breeding quality and good killing flesh brought .75 at that market from a producer. This lot met good packer competition, and the relatively high sale price indicated the plainness of the early run of grassers in general.

Long-fed matured bullocks, averaging 1,443 lbs. reached .80 at Chicago and best long yearlings topped at .50, the premium of heavy steers over yearlings continuing in evidence. Sales above .25 were comparatively scarce, bulk of beef steers at Chicago being of quality and flesh to sell at .50-. At that point few bullocks that had received even a sparse corn ration on grass sold under , but common native and western grassers cashed well below that figure.

PRODUCERS IN MARKET.

The influx of westerns augmented the stocker and feeder supply and producers took more notice of their pasture and feed lot needs than recently, insisting, however, on lower prices except on kinds of high quality. A spread of .50-.50 absorbed the majority of stockers and light feeders at Chicago, a few heavy feeders reaching .50, while good feeders commanded .25-.75 at Kansas City, most of the desirable stockers bringing .50- at that market. Common light stock steers descended to .50 and lower in instances there and at St. Louis.

She stock offerings were comparatively scarce, and flesh condition for the most part was plain to medium. Highly finished kosher cows maintained -.50 levels and above at Chicago, corn-fed yearling heifers selling in line with steers of a similar finish. In-between grades of beef cows and heifers lacked dependable outlet, generous runs of low grade grass steers at river markets being a weakening influence. Bulk of fat cows and heifers at Chicago brought -.25. Canners displayed strength, few healthy descriptions selling there below .

Bulls closed largely 25? lower; desirable heavy bolognas cashed upward to .75-.85 early at Chicago, but descended to around .50, heavy beef bulls sharing the decline. Reduced arrivals of veal calves at Chicago somewhat counteracted the effect of slump conditions in the dressed market and values advanced 25?-50?, packers taking desirable vealers at the close at Chicago at .50-, these interests as well as small killers paying upward to .50 for specialties.

MODERATE RECEIPTS OF MOST MEATS IN EXCESS OF DEMAND Prices Generally Lower on Beef, Veal, Lamb, and Mutton--Heavy Pork Loins Also Lower.

Moderate receipts of beef, veal, lamb, and mutton were in excess of the limited demand and prices were generally lower for the week ending July 28. Heavy pork loins were weak to lower with other classes steady to higher, except at New York, where all averages shared in the decline.

PRICES UNEVEN AT CLOSE.

Compared with the close of the preceding week. Boston was about steady, New York unevenly 50?- lower, Philadelphia - lower, and Chicago lower. Cows were weak to lower at Boston, $l- lower at New York and Philadelphia, and 50? lower at Chicago. Receipts of bulls were light, and prices closed steady to higher at Boston, steady to lower at New York, and 25?-50? lower at Chicago, with very few on sale at Philadelphia. Kosher beef trade was slow, and prices closed around lower at New York and unchanged elsewhere.

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